The Black Swan

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions. The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertaintyWhat have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they''re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. ''Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide . . I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person'' Will Self, Independent on Sunday''He leaps like some superhero of the mind'' Boyd Tonkin, Independent